IBIT
$45.96
-$0.10 (-0.22%)
Last close · Oct 23, 4:00 PM ET
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IBIT Buy the Dip Calculator: Bitcoin ETF Ladder
Scale a separate $200,000 into IBIT, with the largest buys at a −37.5% to −45% drop. The levels come from bitcoin’s own drawdowns since 2014.
IV Rank (1y) 9 — based on bitcoin DVOLbitcoin DVOL 38.19 (bitcoin implied vol, a stand-in for IBIT). 1y low 33.59, high 82.62. IV percentile 28%. As of Oct 25, 2026. What is IV Rank?
Separate cash account · IBIT
The Dry Powder Trade
Market closedYour fills save in this browser
Step 1 · Your dry powder
Enter the cash you’ve set aside only for this plan, money you won’t need for bills or other trades. The ladder splits it across 10 buy levels.
Example: $200,000 — enter yours.
Bitcoin
$80,633.69
-$157.15 (-0.19%)
Reference only. Not a buy signal.
IBIT now $45.96, 30.3% below its 52-week high.
Example: if IBIT fell to $61.02 (−7.5%)
Example order
Buy 163 shares
$61.02 is through −7.5% and those rungs are still open. Place the limit orders. Do not add again if price only retests the same level.
- −7.5% · 163 shares · limit $61.02 · $10,000
- Combined order $10,000. Mark each rung filled after the trade prints.
This is an example at the first rung, not today’s price. Tap “Use today’s price” or type any price below.
The ladder
$0 deployed · $200,000 left
High−37.5%−75%
−7.5% Example
163 shares · limit $61.02 · $10,000
−15% Waiting
267 shares · limit $56.07 · $15,000
−22.5% Waiting
391 shares · limit $51.13 · $20,000
−30% Waiting
541 shares · limit $46.18 · $25,000
−37.5% Waiting
727 shares · limit $41.23 · $30,000
−45% Waiting
826 shares · limit $36.28 · $30,000
−52.5% Waiting
638 shares · limit $31.34 · $20,000
−60% Waiting
757 shares · limit $26.39 · $20,000
−67.5% Waiting
699 shares · limit $21.44 · $15,000
−75% Waiting
909 shares · limit $16.49 · $15,000
Plan
The Dry Powder Trade is to take advantage of the pullbacks. We always have at least 40% of our portfolio in cash (dry powder) and we scale in as IBIT falls in price. It’s buying the dip plus powerful income generation.
After we load our shares and IBIT stabilizes we will sell covered calls (1 for every 100 shares we own), collecting premium on the way up. We can also buy 1 leap call for every 100 shares of IBIT we own as soon as the price is trading above the 21 SMA. Once we establish a leap call position we can turn that position into a PMCC by selling a covered call on each leap we own.
Most bitcoin drops of 20% or more stop by −45%, not −75%. Buys build into that level, $30,000 at −37.5% and $30,000 at −45%. If it goes no further, about two-thirds of the cash is already in. The rest stays back for a drop past −52.5%. One fill per level. Do not buy between levels. The bitcoin price is context, not a trigger.
Notes
- Separate cash account. IBIT only. Typically 40% of your account in dry powder. The bitcoin price is on the tape for context and is not a trigger.
- Anchor is the high you scale from, $65.97 until a new high replaces it. One fill per level. Do not buy between levels. A gap through several rungs is one combined order.
- The probable stop is −45%. The largest buys are $30,000 at −37.5% and $30,000 at −45%. About $130,000 is in if it stops there. $70,000 stays back through −75%. Nothing is reserved past −75%.
- Bitcoin drops of 20% or more since 2014: 16, median depth about −31%. Two went past −75%: 2017–18 (−83%) and 2021–22 (−77%). The drop from the Oct 2025 high reached −53% on Jun 30, 2026 and has not recovered yet. IBIT has tracked bitcoin closely: −53.3% vs −53.1% over the same dates.
How the IBIT ladder works
Start with Step 1: enter your dry powder, the cash you’ve set aside only for this plan. The calculator starts with an example $200,000; type your own amount and every level, dollar amount and share count updates at once. The app opens on an example price at the first rung so you can see how an order looks. Tap Use today’s price and it compares the live IBIT price with your anchor high, which starts at the 52-week high. When the price reaches a rung’s limit, it tells you to buy that rung’s shares; when it hasn’t, it says Do not buy and shows how far away the next rung is. Mark each rung filled after the trade prints, and that rung won’t come up again. The quote refreshes every minute in market hours, and you can type any price into Check a price to preview the plan there.
Default IBIT ladder ($200,000, anchor $65.97 = 52-week high)
| Rung | Drop from high | Limit price | Share of cash | Dollars | Shares |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −7.5% | $61.02 | 5% | $10,000 | 163 |
| 2 | −15% | $56.07 | 7.5% | $15,000 | 267 |
| 3 | −22.5% | $51.13 | 10% | $20,000 | 391 |
| 4 | −30% | $46.18 | 12.5% | $25,000 | 541 |
| 5 | −37.5% | $41.23 | 15% | $30,000 | 727 |
| 6 | −45% | $36.28 | 15% | $30,000 | 826 |
| 7 | −52.5% | $31.34 | 10% | $20,000 | 638 |
| 8 | −60% | $26.39 | 10% | $20,000 | 757 |
| 9 | −67.5% | $21.44 | 7.5% | $15,000 | 699 |
| 10 | −75% | $16.49 | 7.5% | $15,000 | 909 |
How the levels were set
Each ladder has ten buy levels, evenly spaced from the high, using the original app’s sizes: 5%, 7.5%, 10%, 12.5%, 15%, 15%, 10%, 10%, 7.5% and 7.5% of the cash. The heaviest two buys are rungs 5 and 6. We set the bottom rung at the second-deepest bear market in the ticker’s history, rounded to the nearest 5%. That is the level only one bear went past. The other rungs are equal steps down to it.
A bear market here means a fall of 20% or more from a record close, measured to the lowest close before a new record. That is the same frame the ladder uses: you scale in from a high and reset after a new high.
IBIT has only traded since Jan 11, 2024, which is too short to set a ladder from. IBIT holds bitcoin and its price moves with bitcoin’s: from Oct 6, 2025 to Jun 30, 2026 IBIT fell 53.3% and bitcoin 53.1%. So we use bitcoin’s own history (BTC-USD) since Sep 17, 2014, the start of Yahoo Finance’s daily series. Bitcoin had 16 falls of 20% or more. The median depth was −30.6% and the deepest was −83.4% (2017–18). The second-deepest was −76.6% (2021–22), which rounds to −75%. So the steps are 7.5%. Because bitcoin’s worst drops are so deep, the heaviest buys (−37.5% and −45%) sit below the median 20% drop and above its cycle lows of −53% to −83%. 11 of the 16 drops stopped at or before −45%; two went past −75%.
Limits: the series starts at Sep 17, 2014, so the first row starts there rather than at bitcoin’s late-2013 high, which understates that drop. The latest drop is still open. IBIT’s own drops since launch: Mar 13, 2024 to Sep 6, 2024 −27.5%; Dec 17, 2024 to Apr 8, 2025 −28.2%; Oct 6, 2025 to Jun 30, 2026 −53.3% (open).
| Bear | High | Low | Depth | Low to new high |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014–15 | Sep 17, 2014 | Jan 14, 2015 | −61.1% | 11.0 mo |
| 2015–16 | Dec 15, 2015 | Jan 15, 2016 | −21.7% | 3.4 mo |
| 2016 | Jun 16, 2016 | Aug 2, 2016 | −28.6% | 4.0 mo |
| 2017 | Jan 4, 2017 | Jan 11, 2017 | −32.6% | 1.4 mo |
| 2017 | Mar 3, 2017 | Mar 24, 2017 | −26.5% | 1.1 mo |
| 2017 | Jun 11, 2017 | Jul 16, 2017 | −34.8% | 0.7 mo |
| 2017 | Sep 1, 2017 | Sep 14, 2017 | −35.5% | 0.9 mo |
| 2017 | Nov 8, 2017 | Nov 12, 2017 | −20.2% | 0.1 mo |
| 2017–18 | Dec 16, 2017 | Dec 15, 2018 | −83.4% | 23.5 mo |
| 2021 | Jan 8, 2021 | Jan 27, 2021 | −25.4% | 0.4 mo |
| 2021 | Feb 21, 2021 | Feb 28, 2021 | −21.6% | 0.4 mo |
| 2021 | Apr 13, 2021 | Jul 20, 2021 | −53.1% | 3.0 mo |
| 2021–22 | Nov 8, 2021 | Nov 21, 2022 | −76.6% | 15.4 mo |
| 2024 | Mar 13, 2024 | Sep 6, 2024 | −26.2% | 2.0 mo |
| 2025 | Jan 21, 2025 | Apr 8, 2025 | −28.1% | 1.3 mo |
| 2025–26 | Oct 6, 2025 | Jun 30, 2026 | −53.1% | not yet |
Data: Bitcoin (BTC-USD) daily closes, Sep 17 2014 - 2026 (IBIT only trades since Jan 11 2024), from Yahoo Finance daily closing prices. Analysis run Oct 25, 2026. Depths use closing prices, so intraday lows were a bit deeper.
Worked example
Start with the defaults: $200,000 of separate cash and an anchor high of $65.97, IBIT’s 52-week high as of Oct 23, 2026 (the app keeps the anchor on the live 52-week high unless you set your own). The calculator opens on an example at the first rung: if IBIT fell to $61.02 (−7.5%), the order is 163 shares, $10,000 or 5% of the cash. Tap Use today’s price to run it at the live quote instead.
Say IBIT falls −30.6% from the high, the median depth in the history below, to about $45.78. Rungs −7.5% through −30% have filled: 4 orders, 1,362 shares, about $70,000 deployed (35% of the cash). The remaining $130,000 waits for −37.5% and lower.
If it keeps falling to −75% ($16.49), all ten rungs are filled and the full $200,000 is in. Nothing is reserved past that level. If price gaps through several rungs at once, they go in as one combined order.
After you buy: the income side
The Dry Powder Trade is to take advantage of the pullbacks. We always have at least 40% of our portfolio in cash (dry powder) and we scale in as IBIT falls in price. It’s buying the dip plus powerful income generation.
After we load our shares and IBIT stabilizes we will sell covered calls (1 for every 100 shares we own), collecting premium on the way up. We can also buy 1 leap call for every 100 shares of IBIT we own as soon as the price is trading above the 21 SMA. Once we establish a leap call position we can turn that position into a PMCC by selling a covered call on each leap we own.
Risks and limits
- History sets the levels, but the next bear can be shallower (the cash never gets used) or deeper (the ladder runs out). Bitcoin has fallen more than 75% twice since 2014, and it could go lower than it ever has. This ladder is fully spent at −75%. Bitcoin trades all week while IBIT trades only in market hours, so IBIT can gap at the open.
- Buying the dip means buying while the price is still falling. Each fill can show a loss for months.
- Limit orders can miss if price only touches a level, or fill on a fast drop that keeps going.
- Cash for this plan should be money you will not need during a long bear market.
- The covered calls and LEAPS in the plan add option risk. See the OCC’s “Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options” before trading options.
IBIT buy the dip FAQ
What is the dry powder trade for IBIT?
It keeps a separate pile of cash (dry powder) and buys IBIT in ten steps as it falls from its high: a small buy at −7.5%, the largest buys at −37.5% and −45%, and the last at −75%. One fill per level, and nothing is bought between levels.
How much IBIT does the calculator buy at each level?
With $200,000: $10,000 at −7.5%, $15,000 at −15%, $20,000 at −22.5%, $25,000 at −30%, $30,000 at −37.5%, $30,000 at −45%, $20,000 at −52.5%, $20,000 at −60%, $15,000 at −67.5%, $15,000 at −75%. Shares = dollars ÷ limit price, rounded down.
Why are the biggest IBIT buys at −37.5% and −45%?
Bitcoin’s worst drops are so deep (to −83%) that the ladder reaches −75%. The heaviest rungs at −37.5% and −45% fall between its median 20%+ drop (−30.6%) and its cycle bear lows (−53% to −83%). 11 of 16 drops stopped by −45%.
What if IBIT falls more than 75%?
The ladder is fully spent at −75% and nothing is reserved past it. Bitcoin went past it twice since 2014: −83.4% in 2017–18 and −76.6% in 2021–22.
What is the anchor high, and when do I reset?
The anchor is the high you measure every drop from. Here it starts at the 52-week high and follows the live quote, or you can set your own. Keep it until a new high replaces it. After a new high, and only once the account is funded again, reset the filled rungs and start a new campaign from the new high.
Is the bitcoin price a buy signal for IBIT?
No. The bitcoin price is shown for context only. Buys happen only when IBIT’s own price reaches a rung.
What is dry powder, and what amount should I enter?
Dry powder is cash kept ready to invest when prices fall. In this calculator it is the cash you have set aside only for buying IBIT dips: money you won’t need for bills or other trades. Enter that amount in Step 1 (the page starts with an example of $200,000); the ladder splits it across 10 buy levels, and the number is saved only in your browser.
What is IV Rank, and why is it based on Deribit DVOL for IBIT?
IV Rank (1y) shows where implied volatility sits in its past-year range: (today − 1-year low) ÷ (1-year high − 1-year low) × 100. 0 means at the year’s low, 100 at the year’s high. IV percentile is the share of the past year’s daily closes that were below today. We use Deribit DVOL: the 30-day implied volatility of bitcoin options on Deribit. IBIT holds bitcoin, so we use bitcoin’s implied volatility as a stand-in for IBIT’s. Free daily history of IBIT’s own option volatility isn’t available, so we started logging it each day and will switch once a year of it exists. On the last build it was 9, with Deribit DVOL at 38.19 against a 1-year range of 33.59 to 82.62.
Why does IV Rank matter for selling puts versus buying the dip in IBIT?
Option prices rise with implied volatility. When IV Rank is high, puts pay more premium, and that is also usually when prices have already fallen and fear is up. When it is low, premiums are thin and markets are often calm near highs. The ladder on this page buys shares on price alone, so IV Rank is context, not a trigger. It describes option prices, not where IBIT goes next.
Where are my fills saved?
In your browser only (local storage on this device). Nothing is sent to us. Clearing your browser data clears your fills and notes.
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Education only, not financial advice. This site is not affiliated with any fund issuer. Coins-per-share figures come from issuer websites and can be delayed or wrong, so check the issuer’s page before you rely on a number. Crypto is very volatile and you can lose money.