One page for the S&P 500 put seller: today’s read for new 1 DTE, 7 DTE and 45 DTE put credit spreads, the next Fed statement, VIX in context, our featured SPX 7DTE put credit spread with its backtest and stop-rule comparison.
SPX Desk
Daily candles, the short averages for the dated put-credit reads, and the 200-day trend filter.
SPX
7,623.68
-39.75 (-0.52%)
VIX
19.45
+0.42 (+2.21%)
Delayed daily bars. Not a live quote. Bars through Oct 23, 2026.
▬ 5-day ▬ 10-day ▬ 200-day · 5-day for 1 DTE, 10-day for 7 DTE, 200-day as the trend filter. The 50-day sits on the 45 DTE card.
Skip
7,689.52 · -0.86%5-day average · the line a 1 DTE can reach
Skip new 1 DTE put credit. Price is 0.86% under the 5-day average (7,689.52), and this session is -0.52%. The 5-day is the average a one-day spread can actually reach. The 200-day is irrelevant on this expiration. VIX is 19.45, and it is jumping versus its own 20-day average. The credit is small, so one gap erases a run of winners. The next FOMC statement is Wed, Oct 28, 2026, in 5 days — not inside this trade.
Stand aside
7,718.27 · -1.23%10-day average · the line a 7 DTE can reach
Stand aside on new 7 DTE put credit until after the statement. Wed, Oct 28, 2026 is in 5 days, inside a seven-day expiration, with the decision at 2:00 PM ET. Price is 1.23% under the 10-day average (7,718.27), which is the nearby line, but a weekly sold today would still be on when the Fed speaks. Wait for the release, then look at the 10-day again.
Selective — wide only
7,699.64 · -0.99%50-day average · the line a 45 DTE can reach
Selective on 45 DTE, and only wide. Price is 0.99% under the 50-day average (7,699.64). The last 20 sessions are -1.55% and today is -0.52%. VIX at 19.45 is not a reason to crowd the 50-day. The 200-day is still under the market, so the longer trend is intact. The next statement, Wed, Oct 28, 2026, is in 5 days and falls inside this expiration. One meeting is normal in a 45-day short put.
Wed, Oct 28, 2026
In 5 days · statement 2:00 PM ET. Statement only, no dot plot.
The next statement falls inside a 7 DTE held from this quote. A weekly sold today would still be alive at 2:00 PM ET.
↗ Trending higher
SPX is above the 200-day at 7,291.31, and both the average and the last 60 sessions (+2.50%) are pointing up.
Solidity: solid
Held the 200-day on 60 of the last 60 sessions, and sits +4.56% from it. Drawdown from the one-year high is -2.50%.
VIX is 19.45, up 0.42 on the day and above its 20-day average of 16.54. The last-year percentile is 78. Ordinary, not a reason to crowd a strike.
This is the core SPX trade behind the desk. Check today’s 7 DTE card before every entry: right now it reads Stand aside. Stand aside on new 7 DTE put credit until after the statement. Wed, Oct 28, 2026 is in 5 days, inside a seven-day expiration, with the decision at 2:00 PM ET. Price is 1.23% under the 10-day average (7,718.27), which is the nearby line, but a weekly sold today would still be on when the Fed speaks. Wait for the release, then look at the 10-day again.
| Year (exit) | Trades | Win rate | P&L | Worst trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2009 | 135 | 99.3% | $14,917 | −$1,400 |
| 2010 | 97 | 95.9% | $3,628 | −$2,395 |
| 2011 | 46 | 89.1% | −$4,627 | −$2,389 |
| 2012 | 38 | 100.0% | $4,541 | $117 |
| 2013 | 15 | 100.0% | $1,789 | $117 |
| 2014 | 13 | 100.0% | $1,551 | $117 |
| 2015 | 12 | 100.0% | $1,425 | $118 |
| 2016 | 19 | 94.7% | $492 | −$1,676 |
| 2017 | 1 | 100.0% | $119 | $119 |
| 2018 | 33 | 93.9% | $1,435 | −$1,230 |
| 2019 | 19 | 100.0% | $2,259 | $117 |
| 2020 | 114 | 90.4% | −$3,288 | −$2,393 |
| 2021 | 68 | 100.0% | $8,206 | $117 |
| 2022 | 16 | 87.5% | −$2,638 | −$2,394 |
| 2023 | 30 | 100.0% | $3,566 | $117 |
| 2024 | 23 | 91.3% | −$692 | −$1,656 |
| 2025 | 19 | 94.7% | $1,197 | −$969 |
| 2026 | 28 | 100.0% | $3,368 | $117 |
Account view, from the same research (a $200k account, 1 spread a day, open risk capped at $12,500, new trades paused after a $6,000 losing month, marked to market daily, Jan 2008–Oct 2026, entry filter of $1.10 at model prices): average month $352, median month $725, 21% losing months, worst month −$9,455 (Aug 2011), max drawdown −$23,400 (Jun 11, 2020), worst year −$15,587 (2018).
The same 726 trades from the backtest above, run three ways. Every number is per spread, after fees and slippage.
| Touch stop at the short strike | 3:50 close stop used on this page | Hold to expiry | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average per trade | $30.1 | $51.3 | $72.2 |
| Per trade, % of risk | 1.26% | 2.16% | 3.03% |
| Win rate | 91.7% | 96.0% | 97.8% |
| Trades stopped | 8.3% | 3.2% | — |
| Average stop loss | −$978 | −$1,491 | — |
| Fill cushion per stopped trade | $363 about $3.63 a point | $1,603 about $16 a point | — |
| Worst trade | −$1,656 | −$2,395 | −$2,395 |
| Average month | $197 | $336 | $472 |
| Worst month | −$7,497 May 2010 | −$7,938 Aug 2011 | −$9,315 Aug 2011 |
Touch stop: close when SPX trades at the short strike. 3:50 close stop: close if SPX is below the short strike at 3:50 pm. Hold: no stop. Fill cushion: how much worse, on average, each stopped trade could fill before the average trade falls to zero (average per trade ÷ share of trades stopped).
Yes. All three made money on average in the backtest after fees and modeled slippage, but the margin is very different: hold $72.2 a trade (3.03% of risk), 3:50 close stop $51.3 (2.16%), touch stop $30.1 (1.26%).
The fill cushion asks how much worse, on average, each stopped trade could fill before the edge is gone (average per trade ÷ share of trades stopped):
Option prices in the backtest are modeled, so expect real results to be somewhat lower for all three rules.
The 3:50 pm check is approximated with the daily close (the backtest uses daily bars). A gap through both strikes is a full loss whichever rule you use. Stop fills are modeled; in a fast market real fills can be much worse. Source: ETFap’s SPX research, final system run of Oct 24, 2026 (model backtest, hypothetical).
Assumptions: $1.30 commission per contract per leg, at entry and again at exit when the spread is bought back; credit = model mid − $0.10; buying back costs model value + $0.10; stop fills at model value × 1.05 + $0.10; gap exits at the open pay at least 15% (min $0.20) over model value; spreads that expire worthless pay no exit fee. On the real Oct 2026 chain the $1.20 minimum passed about 4 days in 5, far more often than at model prices. Source: ETFap’s SPX research, final system run of Oct 24, 2026.
On the Oct 23, 2026 close the rules point to the Oct 30, 2026 7,335/7,310 SPXW put spread: short put delta 0.089, mid credit $1.25 ($125 a spread), which meets the $1.20 minimum. POP 91%, POT 19%, P50 93%. Today’s 7 DTE read above is Stand aside, so this one waits until after the Fed statement.
Sell the SPXW put about 9 delta that expires 5 trading days out, buy the put 25 points lower, and take it only for $1.20 or more. Close it if SPX closes below the short strike at 3:50 pm; otherwise hold to expiry.
As of Oct 23, 2026 close. IV used: 21.3% (implied vol of the short strike, solved from its mid price (Cboe delayed quote); SPX’s 30-day IV was 14.8%). Model: lognormal prices (Black-Scholes), constant IV, risk-free rate 4.03% (13-week US T-bill yield (^IRX)), no dividends. POP from the price distribution at expiration; POT from the barrier (reflection) formula; P50 from 40,000 simulated daily price paths (fixed seed), repricing each option every day. Credit: mid of the Cboe delayed bid/ask at the close. Recalculated every trading day. These are model odds, not forecasts.
A one-day spread is judged against the 5-day average, the line SPX can actually reach by tomorrow. Under it, on a red day or with VIX jumping above its 20-day average, the read is Skip: the credit is small, so one gap erases a run of winners. Over it with VIX calm, it is on. An FOMC statement inside the trade is always a skip. Today: Skip.
A weekly is read against the 10-day average. If the next Fed statement falls inside the seven days, the read is Stand aside until after the 2:00 PM ET release, whatever the chart says. This is the card to check before the featured 7DTE trade. Today: Stand aside.
A 45-day spread is read against the 50-day average, with the 200-day as the trend filter. Over the 50-day with the trend intact it is on; under the 50-day but above the 200-day it is Selective — wide only; under the 200-day, stand aside. One FOMC meeting inside 45 days is normal. Today: Selective — wide only.
Market health says whether SPX is trending higher and how solidly it has held the 200-day over the last 60 sessions. Size so no single loss can knock you out. A smaller account can use XSP, one tenth the size of SPX.
SPX (^GSPC) and VIX (^VIX) daily bars from Yahoo Finance, delayed. Averages are simple moving averages of daily closes; the one-year high and low and the VIX percentile use the last 252 closes; 20-day realized volatility is the annualized standard deviation of daily log returns. FOMC dates are from the Federal Reserve’s published calendar. This build used bars through Oct 23, 2026 (SPX close 7,623.68, VIX 19.45); the page refreshes them in your browser. The example trade is priced from Cboe’s delayed SPX option quotes; see how POP, POT and P50 are calculated.
A free page that reads the S&P 500 (SPX) for put credit spreads: whether new 1 DTE, 7 DTE and 45 DTE put credit spreads are favorable, selective or a skip today, the closest FOMC statement, VIX in context, market health, and the featured SPX 7DTE put credit spread with its backtest, stop-rule comparison and live POP, POT and P50.
Near the close, sell the SPXW put about 9 delta that expires 5 trading days out and buy the put 25 points lower, only for a credit of $1.20 or more and only when SPX closed above its 200-day average. Close it if SPX closes below the short strike at the 3:50 pm check; otherwise hold it to expiry.
In a model backtest from Jun 2, 2009 to Oct 23, 2026, 726 trades won 96.0% of the time. The average win was $121, the average loss −$1,622, the worst trade −$2,395, and the average result $51.31 a spread after fees. It uses modeled option prices, not historical quotes, so it is hypothetical.
In our SPX 7DTE backtest, no. A touch stop closed many trades that would have recovered and cut the average trade to $30.1, against $51.3 for closing only if SPX is below the short strike at 3:50 pm, and $72.2 for holding to expiry. Holding had the deepest losing months and no way out of a crash, so the page uses the 3:50 close rule. A gap through both strikes is a full loss with any rule.
It can be, but the edge is small and depends on the rules. In our SPX 7DTE 25-wide backtest (726 trades, 2009 to 2026, after fees and modeled slippage) the average trade was +$72.2 holding to expiry, +$51.3 with a 3:50 pm close stop and +$30.1 with a touch stop. The touch stop leaves only about $363 of fill cushion per stopped trade, so slippage in a fast market can erase it. Option prices are modeled, so real results will be somewhat lower. Past and backtested results do not guarantee future results.
Each expiration is read against the moving average its price can realistically reach before it expires. A one-day spread can reach the 5-day average, a weekly the 10-day, and a 45-day spread the 50-day. The 200-day is the trend filter for the 45 DTE read and the 7DTE trade.
When the Fed’s 2:00 PM ET statement falls inside the life of the trade, a weekly sold today is still open when rates are announced, and SPX can gap either way. The page says to wait for the release and then check the 10-day again. One meeting inside a 45-day spread is treated as normal.
XSP is the Mini-SPX index option, one tenth the size of SPX, so the same spread risks one tenth as much. It keeps the SPX features: cash settlement, European exercise and 60/40 tax treatment (Section 1256) in the US. Size so no single loss can knock you out; if one SPX spread is too big for that, use XSP.
IV Rank (1y) shows where implied volatility sits in its past-year range: (today − 1-year low) ÷ (1-year high − 1-year low) × 100. For SPX we use VIX itself: Cboe calculates VIX from SPX option prices, so it is SPX’s own 30-day implied volatility, not a stand-in. On the last build VIX was 19.45 against a 1-year range of 13.47 to 31.05, an IV Rank of 34. A high IV Rank means put credit pays more, usually because the market is already under stress.
The reads use daily SPX and VIX bars from Yahoo Finance. The page refreshes them on load and every minute while open, and shows the latest delayed SPX print. This build used bars through Oct 23, 2026. The example trade is repriced from Cboe’s delayed SPX option quotes after each close.
No. The SPX Desk applies a fixed set of rules to public data and shows the result. It is education, not a recommendation, and a put credit spread can lose the full width minus the credit.
Related: POP vs POT vs P50 explainedOptions trade ideasWhy I trade SPX, SPY, QQQ and IBIT optionsSPY buy the dip ladderThe Buy the Dip AppAll tools